The Geopolitics of the Lithium Triangle
Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile control the energy transition's most critical bottleneck
Lithium is the new oil. The question is whether the countries that have it will repeat the mistakes of the countries that had oil.
Beneath the salt flats of the Atacama Desert and the high-altitude plains of the Andes lies approximately 60% of the world’s known lithium reserves. Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile — the Lithium Triangle — hold the key to the energy transition’s most critical input: the element that powers every electric vehicle battery, grid storage system, and portable electronic device on earth.
The geopolitical implications are staggering. In a world racing to decarbonize, control over lithium supply confers the kind of strategic leverage that oil provided to the Persian Gulf states in the twentieth century.
Lithium is the new oil. The question is whether the countries that have it will repeat the mistakes of the countries that had oil.
The Nationalization Temptation
Chile has already moved to nationalize its lithium industry. Bolivia has long maintained state control over its reserves. Argentina, which liberalized extraction under Milei, has attracted massive foreign investment but faces domestic political backlash. Each country is running a different experiment in resource governance.
The China Factor
Chinese companies have secured dominant positions in lithium processing, controlling roughly 65% of global refining capacity. Even as Western nations invest in extraction, the value chain remains concentrated in China — replicating the dependency pattern that renewable energy was supposed to eliminate.