Deglobalization Is a Myth
Trade is not declining — it is reorganizing along geopolitical fault lines
Vietnam's exports to the United States have tripled since 2018. This is not deglobalization. It is re-globalization with extra steps.
The narrative is seductive: after decades of hyper-globalization, the world is retreating into blocs. Tariffs are rising, supply chains are reshoring, and economic nationalism is ascendant. The only problem with this story is that the data contradict it.
Global trade as a share of GDP reached a new high in 2024. Cross-border capital flows have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Even U.S.-China trade, supposedly in terminal decline, remains above $700 billion annually.
Vietnam’s exports to the United States have tripled since 2018. This is not deglobalization. It is re-globalization with extra steps.
The Rerouting Phenomenon
What has changed is not the volume of trade but its geography. Chinese goods now flow through Vietnam, Mexico, and Malaysia before reaching American consumers. The tariffs have created friction, not barriers — and friction can be arbitraged.
The Services Revolution
The most undercovered story in global trade is the explosion of cross-border services. India’s technology exports alone exceed $200 billion annually. Digital delivery has made services trade nearly immune to the protectionist impulses that constrain goods.